On The Agriculture Side Of Things

best 2018 etf
With all the attention on stocks and bonds this year, you wouldn’t be blamed for forgetting about commodities. There’s been a headline or two about oil, aluminum and gold, but for the most part, the asset class remains under the radar for investors. That’s understandable—in recent years, returns for commodities have been paltry compared to stocks and bonds. For example, last year, the average broad commodity ETFs had a return of 4.4%, well below the 22% advance for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and not much better than the 3.6% gain for the iShares Core U.S.

Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG). Over the past five years, the difference is even more stark, with broad commodity ETFs down an average of 40%, compared to gains of 107% and 11% for SPY and AGG, respectively. That said, as the old market adage goes, past performance is no guarantee of future results. As poorly as commodities have done in recent years, so far in 2018, they’re doing quite well, and some analysts believe their outperformance can continue.

A look at year-to-date performance for broad commodity ETFs in 2018 reveals that over half the funds are up. Gains are modest, only a percent or two, but that beats equities, which were down 0.1% as of the end of the first quarter, and bonds, which were down 1.8% in the same period. 32 million iPath S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN (GSP) were the best performers so far this year, with gains of 3% and 2.6%, respectively.

There’s often a wide variation between the performance of various broad commodity ETFs due to different strategies and commodity weightings schemes. In general, ETFs that track the S&P GSCI, which is a global production-weighted index that’s heavy on energy, are doing the best this year. That outsized weighting in energy has paid off thanks to a strong 7.5% rally for WTI oil and a 12.2% jump in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, the ETFs that track the Bloomberg Commodity Index aren’t doing as well this year due to their heavier weightings in metals, a sour spot in this year’s commodities market.

Year-to-date, aluminum is down 11.9%; copper is down 8.4%; and palladium is down 11.1%. The lone bright spot is gold, which has crept up by 1.7% so far this year thanks to rising financial market volatility. Agriculture—the other major commodity sector—has performed solidly this year, with gains of more than 5% for corn, soybeans and wheat, as well as a spectacular 35% rally for cocoa. Looking ahead, a number of analysts see commodities continuing to outperform as the global economy enters the late cycle.

“We typically see commodities outperform stocks and other risk assets in the late stages of a business cycle,” said Maxwell Gold, director of investment strategy and research at ETF Securities. Additionally, many commodities are moving into backwardation—where front-month contracts are higher than subsequent contracts—which boosts returns for commodity investments, he notes.

“Even if we don't see outsized price increases in commodities, from a total return perspective, commodity returns will benefit from a change to positive roll yields based on the reshaping and structuring of the fundamental market in commodities,” Maxwell added. But for more aggressive investors, picking and choosing individual commodities or commodity sectors is always an option. Oil is one commodity that’s done well this year and could keep climbing in the months to come.

68, due to much-faster-than-expected demand growth and a tight supply picture. According to the International Energy Agency, oil inventories are expected to decline in the second, third and fourth quarters of the year. “With supply from Venezuela clearly vulnerable to an accelerated decline, without any compensatory change from other producers, it is possible the Latin American country could be the final element that tips the market decisively into deficit,” said the IEA.

Futures-tracking ETFs like the United States Brent Oil Fund LP (BNO) should do well if the bullish scenario for oil plays out. Of the main commodity sectors, metals have fared the worst this year after a strong run in 2017. But the sector may just be taking a breather before resuming its rally, according to ETF Securities’ Gold. In his view, copper and precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum are ripe for the picking.

The United States Copper Index Fund (CPER), the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT) are a few of the ETFs targeting those commodities. On the agriculture side of things, analysts see the potential for big moves in either direction, but with an upside bias. Corn and soybeans plantings are expected to be down this year from last, according to the U.S. A report by Reuters analyst Karen Braun suggested U.S.

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